gThe German economy will lose more than €260 billion (£220 billion) in value added by 2030 due to the war in Ukraine and high energy prices, which will have negative effects on the labor market, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).
Compared to expectations for a peaceful Europe, Germany’s price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7% lower next year and there will be around 240,000 fewer people in employment, according to the study published on Tuesday.
The level of employment is expected to remain around this level until 2026, when the expansive measures will gradually start to offset the negative effects and result in more than around 60,000 paid jobs in 2030.
One of the big losers will be the hospitality industry, which has already been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic and is expected to feel the drop in consumer purchasing power.
Energy-intensive sectors, such as the chemical industry and metal production, are also particularly likely to be affected.
If energy prices, which have so far risen by 160%, were to double again, Germany’s economic output in 2023 would be nearly 4% lower than it would have been without the war. , according to the study. Under these assumptions, 660,000 fewer people would be employed after three years and another 60,000 fewer in 2030, he said.